Cropforecasts.com's U.S Corn production forecast as of 09-25-2016 is 14.33 Billion bushels
We produce daily forecasts of the total U.S corn production. Our goal is to determine the direction of this estimate. We do this by using a decision support system that incorporates four different corn prediction models. The methodology used is known as a multimodel ensemble forecast. The output of the models as well as the ensemble average are displayed and updated daily during the growing season. The models are our implementation of the Ceres Maize process model as well as three statistical models based on the works of Thompson, Runge and Westcott-Jewison.
This forecast is meant to compliment the forecasts that are produced by the USDA. This forecast is available on a daily basis from early May through September. The chart of the forecast shows a time series plot of the median estimate of each model as well as the ensemble average of all models.
How is this useful.
The forecast is updated daily and incorporates all of the weather for the current year up through that point. This provides an objective, unbiased estimate of the impact of all weather on corn production. This includes any drought or excessive dryness, heat waves or cold spells.
The accuracy of this system backtested for the last 5 years had a mean error within 3 percent of the final end of year production value as determined by the USDA/NASS. Although the accuracy of the model is important, it's movement and direction, available on a daily basis, that is most useful.
The current scope of the corn production forecast is for the United States. Future plans are to expand this capability to South America as well as other corn producing countries.